Quintin Morris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Quintin Morris

NFL · Player Props

Quintin Morris

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 10:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Quintin Morris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-230).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Quintin Morris has been one of the most reliable receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a terrific 90.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
Quintin Morris's 7.8% Route% this year marks an impressive decline in his air attack usage over last year's 25.1% figure.

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