Quez Watkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Quez Watkins

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Quez Watkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-270).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -270.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Quez Watkins has been much less involved in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for just 53.7% of snaps vs 53.7% last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Quez Watkins has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in a stellar 70.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (72.6%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (72.6%).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.