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Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Quentin Johnston Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-186).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -172 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -186.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The Chargers have been the 6th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 62.4% red zone pass rate.
  • The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Chargers this year (a monstrous 60.7 per game on average).
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • Quentin Johnston has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.6% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 27.7 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Chargers grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year.
  • The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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