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Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Quentin Johnston Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -215.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.0 plays per game.
  • Quentin Johnston has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Quentin Johnston has accrued significantly more air yards this season (96.0 per game) than he did last season (70.0 per game).
  • Quentin Johnston's 59.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 52.2.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 4-point favorite in this game.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 123.4 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Dolphins, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.
  • The Chargers offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • This year, the feeble Dolphins run defense has surrendered a colossal 1.20 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 5th-worst rate in football.

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