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Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Quentin Johnston Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+315/-345).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -410 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -345.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
  • Quentin Johnston has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.4% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
  • Quentin Johnston has accumulated a monstrous 66.0 air yards per game this year: 77th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • With an impressive rate of 0.62 per game through the air (97th percentile), Quentin Johnston stands as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among wide receivers this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.47 seconds per snap.
  • Quentin Johnston's 44.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 52.2.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year.
  • This year, the fierce Texans defense has yielded a paltry 56.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to WRs: 0.53 per game this year.

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