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Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Quentin Johnston Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.0 plays per game.
  • This week, Quentin Johnston is expected by the model to finish in the 82nd percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.
  • Quentin Johnston's 59.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 52.2.
  • With a fantastic 4.2 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston has been among the top wide receivers in the league in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 4-point favorite in this game.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 123.4 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Dolphins, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.
  • The Chargers offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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