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Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Quentin Johnston Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
  • The Chargers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • With a fantastic 3.9 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston places as one of the top wide receivers in the game in the league.
  • When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been atrocious this year, ranking as the worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Chargers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.2 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Quentin Johnston's 45.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 52.2.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chargers profiles as the worst in the league this year.
  • The Eagles pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (57.8%) versus wideouts this year (57.8%).

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