Quentin Johnston Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Quentin Johnston

NFL · Player Props

Quentin Johnston

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Quentin Johnston Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New England's group of CBs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
With a weak 56.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (13th percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to wideouts.

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