Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Quentin Johnston

NFL · Player Props

Quentin Johnston

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Chargers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.41 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect Quentin Johnston to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack in this week's contest (15.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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