Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Quentin Johnston

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
The Broncos pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. wideouts this year, surrendering 8.97 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has not been good when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.75 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Denver's unit has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.6 per game) this year.
With a subpar 6.1 adjusted yards per target (6th percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston stands among the weakest WRs in the league in the NFL.