Puka Nacua Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Puka Nacua

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints · Week 9, 2025

Updated Nov 3, 2025 12:22 AM EST

Analysis

Puka Nacua Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-118/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in football (64.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Rams.
The predictive model expects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 141.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
The predictive model expects Puka Nacua to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (26.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.1% in games he has played).
After totaling 75.0 air yards per game last year, Puka Nacua has seen a big uptick this year, now pacing 97.0 per game.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Rams, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
With an exceptional ratio of 0.14 touchdowns on the ground per game (98th percentile), Puka Nacua places as one of the top rushing touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to WRs and TEs this year.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, New Orleans's unit has been terrible this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.