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Puka Nacua Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-107).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -107.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league (62.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Los Angeles Rams.Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are anticipated by the projections to call 69.0 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week.The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.While Puka Nacua has accounted for 14.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Los Angeles's passing offense near the end zone in this game at 28.6%.Puka Nacua has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (105.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 5.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the San Francisco 49ers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.0 per game) this year.While Puka Nacua has garnered 0.0% of his offense's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Los Angeles's running game near the goal line in this week's contest at 5.2%.The Los Angeles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.Puka Nacua has run for 0.20 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers and tight ends (94th percentile).
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