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Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

Puka Nacua Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +111 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams as the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 129.7 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop-off.

The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the goal line in this week's contest (26.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.9% in games he has played).

As it relates to air yards, Puka Nacua ranks in the towering 86th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 79.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Rams being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

While Puka Nacua has earned 0.0% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Los Angeles's ground game near the goal line in this week's contest at 5.3%.

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The receiving touchdown line reads "0" on Puka Nacua's box scores this year.

With an exceptional rate of 0.25 rushing touchdowns per game (94th percentile), Puka Nacua has been as one of the leading rushing TD-scorers in the league among WRs and TEs this year.

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