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Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Puka Nacua Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-140/+119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -146 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (65.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Rams.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • While Puka Nacua has accounted for 14.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Los Angeles's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 26.8%.
  • Puka Nacua has put up many more air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the worst unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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