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Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Puka Nacua Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-118/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The projections expect Puka Nacua to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game near the goal line in this game (22.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
  • After totaling 75.0 air yards per game last season, Puka Nacua has posted big gains this season, now pacing 84.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a 5.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
  • The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Rams this year (a lowly 54.7 per game on average).
  • The Rams are willing to include receivers in their run game, and Puka Nacua has received 1.8% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th among wideouts).
  • Puka Nacua has rushed for 0.08 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to WRs and TEs (91st percentile).
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the league vs. the Lions defense this year (66.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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