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Puka Nacua Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-102/-123).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -123.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The predictive model expects the Rams to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.The projections expect this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (23.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.5% in games he has played).Puka Nacua has compiled a staggering 78.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 9.5-point advantage, the Rams are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.The Rams have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.4 plays per game.The Rams are willing to include receivers in their rushing attack, and Puka Nacua has received 1.9% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th when it comes to wide receivers).The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (68.6% Adjusted Completion%).
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