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Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Puka Nacua Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-110/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.3% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Rams.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are projected by the projection model to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
  • The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • While Puka Nacua has garnered 14.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Los Angeles's pass game near the goal line this week at 24.3%.
  • After accumulating 75.0 air yards per game last year, Puka Nacua has undergone big improvement this year, currently averaging 83.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Puka Nacua, who has garnered 2.3% of his offense's carries near the end zone this year (94th percentile), finds himself in the unique position (for a WR) of being involved in the Los Angeles red zone run game.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Puka Nacua has rushed for 0.10 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL when it comes to WRs and TEs (94th percentile).
  • The Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.2%) vs. WRs this year (61.2%).

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