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Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

Puka Nacua Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -154 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -167.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league (62.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Los Angeles Rams.

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are anticipated by the projections to call 69.0 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week.

The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to total 11.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Puka Nacua's receiving skills have been refined this year, notching 8.4 adjusted catches vs a mere 7.1 last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the San Francisco 49ers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.0 per game) this year.

The model projects Puka Nacua to be a much smaller part of his team's pass attack this week (33.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (38.3% in games he has played).

The Los Angeles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.1%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (61.1%).

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