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Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-155/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Rams to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects Puka Nacua to accumulate 10.5 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.

Puka Nacua has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 30.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

With a remarkable 7.4 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Puka Nacua has been among the best pass-catching WRs in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Rams to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats deflated) in light of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this week's contest.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Eagles, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.9 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Rams ranks as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

The Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.2%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (61.2%).

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