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Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Puka Nacua Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+125/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +119 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.7% pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • In this game, Puka Nacua is predicted by the projections to rank in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.0 targets.
  • Puka Nacua has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 30.4% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Puka Nacua comes in as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 7.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Rams being a huge 10.5-point favorite in this game.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.8 per game) this year.
  • This year, the imposing Panthers defense has allowed a feeble 62.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 7th-best rate in football.
  • The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-best group of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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