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Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Puka Nacua Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-103/-107).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.3% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Rams.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are projected by the projection model to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
  • The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • In this week's game, Puka Nacua is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 99th percentile among WRs with 10.9 targets.
  • Puka Nacua has been a big part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 29.6% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • The Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.2%) vs. WRs this year (61.2%).
  • The Buccaneers safeties project as the best collection of safeties in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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