Puka Nacua Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Puka Nacua

NFL · Player Props

Puka Nacua

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 29, 2025 10:02 AM EST

Analysis

Puka Nacua Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 99.5 (-157/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 105.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 99.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (65.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Rams.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to notch 12.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With an impressive 30.6% Target% (96th percentile) this year, Puka Nacua rates among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the league.

Favors Under

The Rams are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
Puka Nacua's ability to generate extra yardage has worsened this season, notching a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.53 mark last season.

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