Phillip Dorsett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Phillip Dorsett

NFL · Player Props

Phillip Dorsett

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Phillip Dorsett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-123/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are an enormous 17.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 69.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 136.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Phillip Dorsett has been among the bottom WRs in the game this year, averaging just 1.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 18th percentile among wide receivers.
Phillip Dorsett has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a mere 45.0% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 13th percentile among WRs
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64%) versus WRs this year (64.0%).

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