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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+395/-455).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -455 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -455.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.3% red zone pass rate.
  • The Chiefs have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.0 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • While Patrick Mahomes has received 10.0% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Kansas City's ground game near the end zone in this week's game at 4.5%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see only 124.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.7 per game) this year.
  • Patrick Mahomes has run for 0.38 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to QBs (98th percentile).
  • The Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.00 per game this year.
  • This year, the feeble Buffalo Bills run defense has been gouged for a whopping 1.43 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 2nd-largest rate in football.

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