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Patrick Mahomes
NFL · Player Props
Patrick Mahomes
QB · Kansas City Chiefs
Touchdowns
Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2025 Updated Oct 28, 2025 12:12 AM EST
NFL Props Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+370/-380).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -315 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -380.

Favors Over
  • The model projects the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% red zone pass rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 134.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.4 plays per game.
  • The model projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone in this game (4.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played).
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Favors Under
  • An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a big 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • Patrick Mahomes has rushed for 0.43 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among QBs (100th percentile).
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