Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2025

Updated Oct 28, 2025 12:12 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+370/-380).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -315 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -380.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% red zone pass rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 134.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
The Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.4 plays per game.
The model projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone in this game (4.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played).
The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a big 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Patrick Mahomes has rushed for 0.43 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among QBs (100th percentile).

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