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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+380/-420).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -330 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -420.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 64.3% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 65.0% red zone pass rate.
  • In this game, Patrick Mahomes is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.9.
  • When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year.
  • With a fantastic rate of 1.33 per game (76th percentile), Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the leading TD throwers in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 29.02 seconds per snap.
  • The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the end zone in this week's contest (18.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.0% in games he has played).
  • Patrick Mahomes has rushed for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to QBs (100th percentile).
  • This year, the stout Lions defense has conceded a puny 65.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.
  • The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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