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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+420/-430).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -475 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -430.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • With an outstanding rate of 1.75 per game (90th percentile), Patrick Mahomes places as one of the top touchdown throwers in football this year.
  • Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.25 per game) against the Jaguars defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.
  • While Patrick Mahomes has earned 12.5% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Kansas City's run game near the goal line in this game at 17.7%.
  • Patrick Mahomes's 63.3% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a noteable regression in his throwing accuracy over last year's 68.3% figure.
  • With a terrific ratio of 0.50 rushing touchdowns per game (100th percentile), Patrick Mahomes has been among the leading running QBs in football this year.

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