Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2025

Updated Sep 28, 2025 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+495/-550).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -610 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -550.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.9% red zone pass rate.
At the moment, the 3rd-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the projections to total the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 39.8.
The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (38.5 per game) since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The model projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his team's running game near the goal line in this contest (13.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Patrick Mahomes's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 68.3% to 59.9%.
With an impressive rate of 0.16 rushing touchdowns per game (75th percentile), Patrick Mahomes has been as one of the top running QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.
When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

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