Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2025

Updated Sep 21, 2025 11:57 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-380).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -495 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -380.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

Favors Under

With a 6-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
While Patrick Mahomes has been responsible for -3.4% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Kansas City's ground game near the goal line in this week's game at 16.2%.
Patrick Mahomes's 60.3% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a noteworthy decrease in his throwing accuracy over last year's 68.3% mark.
Patrick Mahomes has rushed for 0.17 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league when it comes to quarterbacks (77th percentile).