My Account Log Out
 
 
Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-560).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +390 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +390.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL in the red zone (63.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may decline.
  • The Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
  • The predictive model expects this game to chug along at the 13th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 30.7 per game) this year.
  • Patrick Mahomes's 63.6% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a significant diminishment in his throwing accuracy over last year's 68.3% figure.
  • With a stellar ratio of 0.23 rushing TDs per game (86th percentile), Patrick Mahomes has been among the top rushing QBs in the league this year.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™