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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+540/-550).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -740 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -550.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL in the red zone (63.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.1 per game on average).
  • In this game, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the projections to wind up with the 4th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.3.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4-point favorite this week.
  • Patrick Mahomes's passing accuracy has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 68.3% to 65.2%.
  • Patrick Mahomes has rushed for 0.25 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks (92nd percentile).
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league versus the Texans defense this year (65.2% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Texans defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest passing TDs in the league: 1.00 per game this year.

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