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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+405/-610).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -560 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -610.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (63.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
  • The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to throw 38.3 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.
  • The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line indicates a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to see just 127.7 total plays run: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • With an impressive ratio of 0.30 rushing touchdowns per game (92nd percentile), Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the leading rushing QBs in football this year.
  • The Cowboys linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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