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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.3% red zone pass rate.
  • The Chiefs have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.0 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • Patrick Mahomes has attempted 36.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 90th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see only 124.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.7 per game) this year.
  • The Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.00 per game this year.

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