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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+182/-199).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +182 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +182.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% red zone pass rate.
  • In this week's game, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the predictive model to have the 8th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.9.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year.
  • Patrick Mahomes has been one of the top touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 1.83 per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a giant 13-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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