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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-132).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.9% red zone pass rate.

At the moment, the 3rd-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.

In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the projections to total the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 39.5.

The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (36.9 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Patrick Mahomes's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 68.3% to 59.9%.

The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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