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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+103/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 65.5% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (65.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.2 plays per game.
  • The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to throw 38.0 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks.
  • The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 5th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the league.
  • Patrick Mahomes's 63.2% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a meaningful diminishment in his throwing precision over last year's 68.3% rate.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the Eagles defense since the start of last season (66.8% Adjusted Completion%).
  • Since the start of last season, the daunting Eagles defense has surrendered a mere 1.22 TDs through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-best rate in the league.

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