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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL in the red zone (63.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.1 per game on average).
  • In this game, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the projections to wind up with the 4th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.3.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4-point favorite this week.
  • Patrick Mahomes's passing accuracy has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 68.3% to 65.2%.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league versus the Texans defense this year (65.2% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Texans defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest passing TDs in the league: 1.00 per game this year.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Houston's unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

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