Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 8:52 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football in the red zone (63.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.9 per game on average).
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the projection model to have the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 38.5.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in football versus the Broncos defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).
The Broncos defense has surrendered the fewest passing touchdowns in football: 0.80 per game this year.
The Broncos safeties rank as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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