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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football in the red zone (63.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
  • The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.9 per game on average).
  • In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the projection model to have the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 38.5.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in football versus the Broncos defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Broncos defense has surrendered the fewest passing touchdowns in football: 0.80 per game this year.
  • The Broncos safeties rank as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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