Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 65.6% red zone pass rate.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the model to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.2.
Patrick Mahomes is positioned as one of the most accurate passers in the league this year with an impressive 69.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the leading TD passers in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 2.14 per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Broncos, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.

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