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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-149).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to throw 42.3 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.

Patrick Mahomes's throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 67.7% to 62.6%.

The Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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