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Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-165).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -165.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.1% red zone pass rate.THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 0.91 per game this year.The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
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