Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 0.91 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.