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Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-125/-103).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Chiefs have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.0 plays per game.This week, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the predictive model to accumulate the 7th-most rush attempts among all QBs with 5.0. After taking on 9.3% of his team's rushing play calls last year, Patrick Mahomes has had a larger role in the run game this year, currently taking on 21.1%.Patrick Mahomes has rushed for significantly more yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (20.0).The Buffalo Bills defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing 5.33 adjusted yards-per-carry.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 37.8% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see only 124.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.Patrick Mahomes's 7.51 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season illustrates a noteworthy decrease in his running proficiency over last season's 8.26 rate.
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