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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Chiefs are a giant 13-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • Patrick Mahomes has averaged 5.2 carries per game this year, one of the largest rates in the league among quarterbacks (88th percentile).
  • Patrick Mahomes's 39.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year signifies a significant boost in his running talent over last year's 20.0 mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to run on 40.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • While Patrick Mahomes has received 23.0% of his team's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Kansas City's rushing attack this week at 17.4%.
  • Patrick Mahomes's 7.49 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year indicates a meaningful decline in his running proficiency over last year's 8.26 rate.
  • As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Las Vegas's group of DEs has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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