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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 6-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.

The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack in this game (17.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.3% in games he has played).

Patrick Mahomes's 9.03 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year marks a noteable growth in his running skills over last year's 8.26 mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

With a lousy record of 0.23 yards-after-contact (19th percentile), Patrick Mahomes places among the worst rushing quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

The Giants defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

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