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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
  • Patrick Mahomes has averaged 4.2 carries per game this year, one of the biggest rates in the league among quarterbacks (75th percentile).
  • After accounting for 9.3% of his team's rush attempts last year, Patrick Mahomes has had a larger role in the ground game this year, currently making up 17.6%.
  • Patrick Mahomes's 31.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents a significant improvement in his running prowess over last season's 20.0 figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 40.6% of their downs: the 10th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects this game to chug along at the 13th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may decline.
  • Patrick Mahomes's ground efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling a measly 7.47 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 8.26 mark last season.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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