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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-175/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -175.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4-point favorite this week.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.1 per game on average).
  • After accounting for 9.3% of his offense's rushing play calls last season, Patrick Mahomes has had a larger role in the running game this season, currently sitting at 16.9%.
  • Patrick Mahomes has rushed for substantially more yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to run on 39.2% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • Patrick Mahomes's 7.44 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season reflects a meaningful reduction in his running proficiency over last season's 8.26 figure.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 88.0 per game) versus the Texans defense this year.
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Houston's collection of safeties has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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