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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-112/-112).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line indicates a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • The 2nd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chiefs this year (a massive 61.5 per game on average).
  • After taking on 9.3% of his offense's carries last year, Patrick Mahomes has been called on more in the run game this year, currently making up 17.3%.
  • Patrick Mahomes's 29.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a material boost in his running prowess over last season's 20.0 rate.
  • The Cowboys defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, yielding 5.09 adjusted yards-per-carry.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 36.9% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to see just 128.0 total plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
  • Patrick Mahomes's ground effectiveness has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 7.28 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 8.26 mark last season.

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