Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 20, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (14.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (9.3% in games he has played).
Patrick Mahomes's running effectiveness (7.39 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (81st percentile when it comes to QBs).
As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 35.3% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes's 19.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents an impressive reduction in his rushing prowess over last season's 24.0 figure.
Patrick Mahomes grades out as one of the weakest QBs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a measly 0.81 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 98.0 per game) vs. the 49ers defense this year.

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