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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.4 per game on average).

Patrick Mahomes's 7.92 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season marks a noteworthy improvement in his rushing skills over last season's 7.12 figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 39.2% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.

After making up 15.6% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Patrick Mahomes has been less involved in the running game this season, currently taking on only 9.3%.

Patrick Mahomes's 19.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows a noteable decrease in his running ability over last year's 24.0 figure.

The Houston Texans defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.13 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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