Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Accounting for 15.1% of his team's rushing play calls this year (80th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Patrick Mahomes's mobility makes him a dangerous weapon in Kansas City's rushing attack.
When talking about run-blocking (and the effect it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs grades out as the best in the league last year.
Patrick Mahomes has rushed for a lot more yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (21.0).
Patrick Mahomes's 8.88 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a substantial improvement in his running prowess over last year's 7.01 figure.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 31.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Patrick Mahomes is positioned as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 0.69 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 15th percentile.

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